Moderate “average” rate increases for 2015 exchange plans over 2014 exchange plans have been widely reported in the press and elsewhere.  Well here’s another “not so fast my friend!”

Many folks who purchased ACA plans in 2014 on the exchange may be surprised when they get their January invoices.

Here’s how the wolf disguised as sheep reference plays out.

The “average rate increases” (increases spread across all plans offered without regard to market share) that some experts are proclaiming and the media is reporting are masking a more practical barometer of how policyholders are impacted.

Wolf dog dressed as grandma golden retriever

The “loaded average” is the more realistic barometer. It factors in and weighs the market share impact of the best selling plans from the most prominent carriers. In many states, including my home state of Florida, the plans with the biggest market share are being hit with much larger increases while the lower selling, less popular plans are receiving much smaller increases.

Let’s see what happens when the invoices hit the mailbox. Stay tuned.

For more details on this topic, read How Many People Have Enrolled So Far in Obamacare’s Second Open Enrollment? by Health Care Policy and Marketplace Review.